Swiss Super League, round 11 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

FC Zürich — Luzern

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Model prediction for 24 October

FC Zürich27%
Draw27%
Luzern46%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Luzern are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.

3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 71%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Luzern are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Zürich — Luzern What is xG?1.6–2.0
FC Zürich not to lose54%
Luzern not to lose73%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes71%
Both teams to score: no29%
Total over 2.569%
Total under 2.531%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap FC Zürich
  • FC Zürich goals
  • Luzern goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

FC Zürich

  • 10.10Thun4:2
  • 19.09away · Sion1:1
  • 13.09FC Vaduz2:1
  • 05.09away · Grasshopper2:2
  • 01.09Young Boys2:4

Luzern

  • 10.10away · Lugano0:4
  • 19.09Grasshopper5:1
  • 13.09Basel2:4
  • 05.09away · Young Boys3:3
  • 02.09FC Vaduz2:1

Head to head

  • 12.05.2026Luzern — FC Zürich1:0
  • 14.02.2026FC Zürich — Luzern1:4
  • 08.11.2025FC Zürich — Luzern3:2
  • 03.08.2025Luzern — FC Zürich1:1
  • 15.03.2025FC Zürich — Luzern3:2

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Championship roundSt. Gallen1051417–19-216
5, Championship roundFC Zürich1042418–22-414
6, Championship roundServette1041514–13+113
7, Relegation roundBasel1041517–20-313
8, Relegation roundLuzern1033417–22-512
9, Relegation roundThun1031617–27-1010

Season 2026/27

Full table

Swiss Super League on the same day

  • ServetteFC Vaduzpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →