Swiss Super League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Letzigrund
FC Zürich — Thun
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4:2Missed
In short
Final score 4:2: the model's most likely outcome, Thun to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: FC Zürich 34%, Thun 39%, draw 27%.
3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 73%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Thun are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Zürich — Thun What is xG? | 1.8–1.8 | |
| FC Zürich not to lose | 61% | |
| Thun not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 27% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Zürich
- FC Zürich goals
- Thun goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Sion1:1
- 13.09FC Vaduz2:1
- 05.09away · Grasshopper2:2
- 01.09Young Boys2:4
- 29.08away · Lausanne3:2
Head to head
- 21.03.2026FC Zürich — Thun2:1
- 20.12.2025Thun — FC Zürich4:2
- 23.08.2025FC Zürich — Thun0:4
Table
Next matches
- FC TwenteThun15 October · Conference League7217101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- FC ZürichLuzern24 October · Swiss Super League · preliminary2727462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
Swiss Super League on the same day
- 3527372The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →