Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Fortaleza FC — Millonarios
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Millonarios to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.
Millonarios are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millonarios are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Fortaleza FC: winless in 5; Millonarios: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Fortaleza FC 0 wins, Millonarios 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fortaleza FC — Millonarios What is xG? | 0.9–1.3 | |
| Fortaleza FC not to lose | 57% | |
| Millonarios not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fortaleza FC
- Fortaleza FC goals
- Millonarios goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 04.10away · Deportivo Pasto0:0
- 28.09Tolima2:2
- 20.09Junior FC1:4
- 12.09away · CD Jaguares2:2
- 06.09away · Santa Fe2:2
- 30.09away · Independiente Medellín2:2
- 25.09away · Atlético Nacional1:1
- 19.09Chicó FC3:0
- 14.09away · Cúcuta2:1
- 11.09Deportivo Cali1:1
Head to head
- 31.03.2026Millonarios — Fortaleza FC2:2
- 21.09.2025Millonarios — Fortaleza FC3:2
- 07.04.2025Fortaleza FC — Millonarios0:2
- 17.10.2024Millonarios — Fortaleza FC2:1
- 31.03.2024Fortaleza FC — Millonarios1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
| 8, Semi-final groups | Tolima | 14 | 5 | +1 | 20 |
| 15 | Alianza FC | 13 | 3 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior FC | 12 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
Next matches
- MillonariosOnce Caldas14 October · Colombian Primera A5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Internacional de BogotáFortaleza FC21 October · Colombian Primera A · preliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 5526191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →