Austrian Bundesliga, round 11 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Grazer AK — Hartberg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Grazer AK are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Grazer AK are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Grazer AK — No. 7, 9 pts; Hartberg — No. 6, 11 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Grazer AK: unbeaten in 4; Hartberg: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Grazer AK 0 wins, Hartberg 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grazer AK — Hartberg What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Grazer AK not to lose | 77% | |
| Hartberg not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Grazer AK
- Grazer AK goals
- Hartberg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Salzburg0:0
- 19.09Austria Wien2:2
- 12.09away · Altach2:1
- 29.08Wolfsberger AC0:0
- 21.08away · Ried0:1
- 11.10Austria Lustenau4:3
- 20.09LASK3:3
- 13.09away · WSG Tirol2:2
- 30.08Ried3:2
- 22.08away · Altach2:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Hartberg — Grazer AK1:0
- 18.10.2025Grazer AK — Hartberg0:0
- 25.04.2025Hartberg — Grazer AK1:1
- 22.04.2025Grazer AK — Hartberg0:3
- 08.12.2024Grazer AK — Hartberg0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6, Championship round | Hartberg | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 8, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →