Nigeria NPFL, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Ikorodu City — Kwara United
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Ikorodu City to win (65%), came true.
Ikorodu City are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ikorodu City are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ikorodu City — Kwara United What is xG? | 1.7–0.6 | |
| Ikorodu City not to lose | 87% | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ikorodu City
- Ikorodu City goals
- Kwara United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10away · Rivers United FC0:2
- 30.09away · Sporting Lagos0:0
- 27.09Enugu Rangers2:0
- 23.09away · Bendel Insurance1:2
- 19.09Barau0:0
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 27.09away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 23.09Nasarawa United2:1
- 20.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 13.09Katsina United3:0
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Ikorodu City — Kwara United1:0
- 24.08.2025Kwara United — Ikorodu City0:0
- 09.02.2025Ikorodu City — Kwara United2:1
- 22.09.2024Kwara United — Ikorodu City0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Doma United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Ikorodu City | 8 | 3 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Kwara United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
Next matches
- Niger TornadoesIkorodu City18 October · Nigeria NPFL4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Kwara UnitedAbia Warriors18 October · Nigeria NPFL6324141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- 6322141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →