Nigeria NPFL, round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Kwara United — Abia Warriors
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Kwara United are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 32%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kwara United are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kwara United — Abia Warriors What is xG? | 1.4–0.5 | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 86% | |
| Abia Warriors not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 32% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 68% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kwara United
- Kwara United goals
- Abia Warriors goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 27.09away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 23.09Nasarawa United2:1
- 20.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
- 11.10Rivers United FC0:0
- 04.10away · Enugu Rangers1:3
- 27.09Bendel Insurance3:0
- 23.09away · Barau0:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Lagos2:0
Head to head
- 22.02.2026Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
- 05.10.2025Kwara United — Abia Warriors0:1
- 26.02.2025Kwara United — Abia Warriors0:0
- 13.10.2024Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
- 29.02.2024Abia Warriors — Kwara United1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Kwara United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Niger Tornadoes | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Abia Warriors | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Ranchers Bees | 8 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- 6223151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- 363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.7
- 6323141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- 6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 731791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6821101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →