Polish Ekstraklasa, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Jagiellonia Białystok are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Jagiellonia Białystok are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock What is xG? | 1.8–1.2 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 79% | |
| Wisła Płock not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 10.10Górnik Zabrze1:3
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
- 06.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 09.10away · Wieczysta Kraków0:3
- 20.09away · Zagłębie Lubin2:0
- 13.09Cracovia3:1
- 07.09away · Pogoń Szczecin1:1
- 28.08Korona Kielce0:2
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock1:2
- 19.09.2025Wisła Płock — Jagiellonia Białystok0:1
- 21.04.2023Wisła Płock — Jagiellonia Białystok2:4
- 07.10.2022Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock1:1
- 13.03.2022Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 9 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Śląsk WrocławWieczysta Krakówpreliminary3528372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
- Legia WarszawaLech Poznańpreliminary343136XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →