Polish Ekstraklasa, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Jagiellonia Białystok are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Jagiellonia Białystok are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 10, 12 pts; Wisła Płock — No. 12, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Jagiellonia Białystok: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Jagiellonia Białystok 2 wins, Wisła Płock 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 78% | |
| Wisła Płock not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Jagiellonia Białystok
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- Wisła Płock goals
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Form
- 10.10Górnik Zabrze1:3
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
- 06.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 09.10away · Wieczysta Kraków0:3
- 20.09away · Zagłębie Lubin2:0
- 13.09Cracovia3:1
- 07.09away · Pogoń Szczecin1:1
- 28.08Korona Kielce0:2
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock1:2
- 19.09.2025Wisła Płock — Jagiellonia Białystok0:1
- 21.04.2023Wisła Płock — Jagiellonia Białystok2:4
- 07.10.2022Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock1:1
- 13.03.2022Jagiellonia Białystok — Wisła Płock0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 9 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Śląsk WrocławWieczysta Krakówpreliminary2928432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Legia WarszawaLech Poznańpreliminary323137XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →