Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK

Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv

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Model prediction for 31 October

Kryvbas21%
Draw26%
Dynamo Kyiv54%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Dynamo Kyiv are clear favourites: 54% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Dynamo Kyiv are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv What is xG?1.3–2.1
Kryvbas not to lose46%
Dynamo Kyiv not to lose79%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes67%
Both teams to score: no33%
Total over 2.566%
Total under 2.534%

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Form

Kryvbas

  • 18.09away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:1
  • 05.09FC Kolos Kovalivka2:2
  • 30.08away · Chornomorets Odesa0:1
  • 15.08Liviy Bereh1:1
  • 09.08away · Zorya3:1

Dynamo Kyiv

  • 11.10Karpaty1:0
  • 19.09away · Zorya2:0
  • 14.09Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi3:0
  • 06.09LNZ Cherkasy0:0
  • 31.08away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi0:3

Head to head

  • 26.04.2026Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv5:6
  • 26.10.2025Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas4:0
  • 12.04.2025Kryvbas — Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • 06.10.2024Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas2:1
  • 18.05.2024Dynamo Kyiv — Kryvbas3:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Europa League or Conference LeaguePolissya Zhytomyr861117–7+1019
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueDynamo Kyiv751110–5+516
4FC Kharkiv750214–5+915
12Liviy Bereh71425–6-17
13, Relegation play-offKryvbas61237–10-35
14, Relegation play-offChornomorets Odesa71244–9-55

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ukrainian Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →