Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
LA Galaxy — Austin FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
LA Galaxy are clear favourites: 58% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings LA Galaxy are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: LA Galaxy — Austin FC What is xG? | 2.1–1.3 | |
| LA Galaxy not to lose | 80% | |
| Austin FC not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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Form
- 12.10away · St. Louis City2:6
- 27.09Colorado Rapids3:2
- 20.09away · Minnesota United3:2
- 13.09Seattle Sounders FC1:1
- 10.09away · Vancouver Whitecaps0:3
- 11.10Nashville SC1:4
- 27.09San Diego FC3:3
- 20.09away · FC Dallas0:0
- 14.09away · Vancouver Whitecaps2:1
- 10.09Colorado Rapids1:1
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Austin FC — LA Galaxy1:2
- 17.07.2025LA Galaxy — Austin FC1:2
- 19.04.2025Austin FC — LA Galaxy1:0
- 06.10.2024LA Galaxy — Austin FC2:1
- 27.04.2024Austin FC — LA Galaxy2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
MLS on the same day
- San Jose EarthquakesReal Salt Lakepreliminary5126241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- Colorado RapidsChicago Fire FCpreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →