Ligue 1, round 6 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens — Lyon
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Lens to win (50%), came true.
Lens are clear favourites: 50% against 26% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lens are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lens — Lyon What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Lens not to lose | 74% | |
| Lyon not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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Form
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
- 05.09Lorient0:1
- 29.08away · Strasbourg1:2
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Lyon — Lens0:4
- 05.03.2026Lyon — Lens2:2
- 16.08.2025Lens — Lyon0:1
- 04.05.2025Lyon — Lens1:2
- 15.09.2024Lens — Lyon0:0
Table
Next matches
- LensSporting CP13 October · Champions League4226321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- LyonCrystal Palace15 October · Europa League4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →