Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Leones del Norte — Emelec
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Leones del Norte are clear favourites: 47% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leones del Norte are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones del Norte — Emelec What is xG? | 1.2–0.8 | |
| Leones del Norte not to lose | 77% | |
| Emelec not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 33% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leones del Norte
- Leones del Norte goals
- Emelec goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:3
- 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
- 13.09Técnico Universitario0:1
- 08.09away · Mushuc Runa1:1
- 04.09Orense1:0
- 11.10away · Guayaquil City2:3
- 20.09Libertad (ECU)1:2
- 13.09away · CSD Macará0:1
- 08.09Manta1:0
- 04.09away · Libertad (ECU)1:1
Head to head
- 31.08.2026Emelec — Leones del Norte2:1
- 04.05.2026Leones del Norte — Emelec2:0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 353135XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
- 4730231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →