Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Libertad (ECU) — Leones del Norte
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3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Libertad (ECU) to win (49%), came true.
Libertad (ECU) are clear favourites: 49% against 22% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Libertad (ECU) are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Libertad (ECU) — Leones del Norte What is xG? | 1.3–0.8 | |
| Libertad (ECU) not to lose | 78% | |
| Leones del Norte not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Libertad (ECU)
- Libertad (ECU) goals
- Leones del Norte goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · Emelec2:1
- 14.09Independiente del Valle2:3
- 07.09away · Deportivo Cuenca1:0
- 04.09Emelec1:1
- 30.08away · Aucas0:1
- 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
- 13.09Técnico Universitario0:1
- 08.09away · Mushuc Runa1:1
- 04.09Orense1:0
- 31.08away · Emelec1:2
Head to head
- 04.07.2026Libertad (ECU) — Leones del Norte1:3
- 28.02.2026Leones del Norte — Libertad (ECU)1:1
Next matches
- Libertad (ECU)Guayaquil City17 October · LigaPro Serie A5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Leones del NorteEmelec18 October · LigaPro Serie A4729231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 363133XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 0:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →