Ligue 1, round 7 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Lille — Brest
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Lille are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lille are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lille — Brest What is xG? | 1.8–0.9 | |
| Lille not to lose | 83% | |
| Brest not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Lille
- Lille goals
- Brest goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Angers5:1
- 20.09away · Auxerre1:2
- 13.09Paris Saint-Germain0:1
- 05.09away · Le Havre2:1
- 29.08Toulouse2:2
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Lille — Brest1:1
- 17.08.2025Brest — Lille3:3
- 10.05.2025Brest — Lille2:0
- 06.12.2024Lille — Brest3:1
- 17.03.2024Brest — Lille1:1
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- 1018722The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →