Ligue 1, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille — Le Havre
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Lille to win (66%), came true.
Lille are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lille are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lille — Le Havre What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Lille not to lose | 87% | |
| Le Havre not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap Lille
- Lille goals
- Le Havre goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09away · Nice1:2
- 13.09Troyes2:0
- 08.09Real Betis2:3
- 03.09away · Toulouse1:0
- 28.08Paris Saint-Germain2:2
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Lille — Le Havre1:1
- 30.11.2025Le Havre — Lille0:1
- 08.02.2025Lille — Le Havre1:2
- 28.09.2024Le Havre — Lille0:3
- 17.02.2024Lille — Le Havre3:0
Table
Next matches
- ArsenalLille13 October · Champions League · live801471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- Le HavreAuxerre18 October · Ligue 14027321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 5425211The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 3226412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 5724191The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 791381The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →