English Premier League, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Liverpool are clear favourites: 53% against 22% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Liverpool are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Liverpool — No. 9, 9 pts; Brighton & Hove Albion — No. 3, 13 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 3 wins, Brighton & Hove Albion 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion What is xG? | 2.0–1.3 | |
| Liverpool not to lose | 78% | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Liverpool
- Liverpool goals
- Brighton & Hove Albion goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Manchester City0:3
- 20.09away · AFC Bournemouth1:0
- 15.09Tottenham Hotspur3:1
- 12.09Fulham0:0
- 09.09Atlético Madrid2:1
- 10.10away · Sunderland2:0
- 19.09Arsenal3:0
- 16.09away · Manchester United3:2
- 13.09away · Coventry City5:0
- 05.09Leeds United1:1
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Brighton & Hove Albion — Liverpool2:1
- 14.02.2026Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion3:0
- 13.12.2025Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion2:0
- 19.05.2025Brighton & Hove Albion — Liverpool3:2
- 02.11.2024Liverpool — Brighton & Hove Albion2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 4, Champions League | Brentford | 6 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
Premier League on the same day
- Crystal PalaceNewcastle Unitedpreliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- Hull CityBrentfordpreliminary1729552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouthpreliminary5326201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- SunderlandLeeds Unitedpreliminary3030392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →