Swiss Super League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · AIL Arena
Lugano — Luzern
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4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Lugano to win (46%), came true.
Lugano are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — Luzern What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| Lugano not to lose | 73% | |
| Luzern not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Lausanne4:0
- 16.09St. Gallen4:1
- 12.09Young Boys2:2
- 06.09away · Basel3:1
- 03.09Servette1:0
- 19.09Grasshopper5:1
- 13.09Basel2:4
- 05.09away · Young Boys3:3
- 02.09FC Vaduz2:1
- 29.08away · Servette1:1
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Lugano — Luzern1:3
- 17.01.2026Luzern — Lugano2:5
- 30.10.2025Lugano — Luzern2:0
- 04.05.2025Luzern — Lugano0:2
- 15.02.2025Lugano — Luzern2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Lugano | 10 | 9 | +24 | 28 |
| 2, Championship round | Young Boys | 10 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 7, Relegation round | Basel | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8, Relegation round | Luzern | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 9, Relegation round | Thun | 10 | 3 | -10 | 10 |
Next matches
- LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda15 October · Conference League5624201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- FC ZürichLuzern24 October · Swiss Super League · preliminary2727462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.6
Swiss Super League on the same day
- 3527372The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 0:1.3.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →