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Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estádio do Marítimo

Marítimo — FC Porto

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Marítimo11%
Draw22%
FC Porto67%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, FC Porto to win (67%), came true.

FC Porto are clear favourites: 67% against 11% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Marítimo — FC Porto What is xG?0.7–1.9
Marítimo not to lose33%
FC Porto not to lose89%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Marítimo
  • Marítimo goals
  • FC Porto goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Marítimo

  • 19.09away · Gil Vicente1:1
  • 14.09away · Moreirense1:3
  • 05.09Benfica0:3
  • 29.08away · Arouca1:2
  • 22.08Académico Viseu2:2

FC Porto

  • 20.09Benfica3:1
  • 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
  • 08.09Manchester City0:2
  • 04.09Moreirense2:1
  • 29.08away · Académico Viseu3:0

Head to head

  • 01.02.2023Marítimo — FC Porto0:2
  • 06.08.2022FC Porto — Marítimo5:1
  • 30.01.2022FC Porto — Marítimo2:1
  • 22.08.2021Marítimo — FC Porto1:1
  • 22.02.2021Marítimo — FC Porto1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueFC Porto880020–4+1624
2, Champions LeagueBenfica861124–7+1719
10Estrela da Amadora824214–15-110
11Marítimo82249–14-58
12Moreirense82248–15-78

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Real BetisFC Porto14 October · Champions League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • AlcochetenseMarítimo18 October · Taca de Portugal
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9

Primeira Liga on the same day

  • Casa Pia ACSanta Clara
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.1
  • Académico ViseuEstoril
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →