Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia AC — Santa Clara
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Santa Clara to win (49%), came true.
Santa Clara are clear favourites: 49% against 20% for the opponent, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Santa Clara are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Casa Pia AC — Santa Clara What is xG? | 0.8–1.3 | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 51% | |
| Santa Clara not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 35% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 65% |
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- Handicap Casa Pia AC
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Santa Clara goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
- 12.09FC Porto1:4
- 06.09away · Vitória de Guimarães0:0
- 30.08Moreirense0:1
- 24.08away · Gil Vicente0:2
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Casa Pia AC — Santa Clara0:0
- 06.12.2025Santa Clara — Casa Pia AC1:0
- 01.02.2025Santa Clara — Casa Pia AC2:1
- 24.08.2024Casa Pia AC — Santa Clara0:2
- 29.01.2023Casa Pia AC — Santa Clara2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 8 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Next matches
- AlpendoradaCasa Pia AC18 October · Taca de Portugal2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- MafraSanta Clara18 October · Taca de Portugal714792The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 1122672The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.6
- 4828241The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →