Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Marítimo — Santa Clara
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Santa Clara are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Santa Clara are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Marítimo — Santa Clara What is xG? | 0.8–1.2 | |
| Marítimo not to lose | 57% | |
| Santa Clara not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Marítimo
- Marítimo goals
- Santa Clara goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10FC Porto1:2
- 19.09away · Gil Vicente1:1
- 14.09away · Moreirense1:3
- 05.09Benfica0:3
- 29.08away · Arouca1:2
- 10.10away · Casa Pia AC1:0
- 20.09Braga0:0
- 13.09away · Arouca2:1
- 06.09Rio Ave4:0
- 29.08away · Alverca1:1
Head to head
- 25.02.2023Marítimo — Santa Clara3:1
- 04.09.2022Santa Clara — Marítimo2:1
- 23.04.2022Santa Clara — Marítimo2:2
- 11.12.2021Marítimo — Santa Clara4:1
- 08.02.2021Marítimo — Santa Clara1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- AroucaNacionalpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Académico ViseuRio Avepreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- BragaFamalicãopreliminary5426191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →