Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Arouca — Nacional
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arouca are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arouca are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Arouca — Nacional What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Arouca not to lose | 76% | |
| Nacional not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Handicap Arouca
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- Nacional goals
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Form
- 11.10Estrela da Amadora1:0
- 19.09away · Sporting CP2:2
- 13.09Santa Clara1:2
- 07.09away · Estoril0:0
- 29.08Marítimo2:1
- 11.10away · Rio Ave2:3
- 19.09Famalicão0:4
- 12.09Alverca1:3
- 05.09away · Sporting CP0:2
- 30.08Estrela da Amadora2:3
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Arouca — Nacional3:0
- 20.09.2025Nacional — Arouca1:2
- 01.02.2025Nacional — Arouca1:2
- 25.08.2024Arouca — Nacional1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- Académico ViseuRio Avepreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- MarítimoSanta Clarapreliminary2631432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.0
- BragaFamalicãopreliminary5426191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →