A-League Men (Australia), round 3 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Melbourne Victory — Central Coast Mariners
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Melbourne Victory are clear favourites: 62% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Melbourne Victory are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Melbourne Victory — Central Coast Mariners What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Melbourne Victory not to lose | 83% | |
| Central Coast Mariners not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory goals
- Central Coast Mariners goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.05Sydney FC0:1
- 25.04away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:0
- 17.04Newcastle Jets2:2
- 11.04away · Auckland FC2:2
- 05.04Wellington Phoenix0:1
- 25.04away · Newcastle Jets0:4
- 19.04away · Auckland FC1:0
- 10.04Brisbane Roar FC2:2
- 07.04away · Melbourne City FC1:2
- 04.04Perth Glory2:2
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Melbourne Victory — Central Coast Mariners4:1
- 01.02.2026Central Coast Mariners — Melbourne Victory1:0
- 08.03.2025Melbourne Victory — Central Coast Mariners3:0
- 18.10.2024Central Coast Mariners — Melbourne Victory0:0
- 25.05.2024Central Coast Mariners — Melbourne Victory3:1
A-League on the same day
- Perth GloryAdelaide Unitedpreliminary2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →