Serie A, round 10 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK

Milan — Inter

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Model prediction for 31 October

Milan23%
Draw28%
Inter49%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Inter are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Inter are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Milan — Inter What is xG?1.3–1.8
Milan not to lose51%
Inter not to lose77%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Milan
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  • Inter goals
  • Corners and cards
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Form

Milan

  • 11.10away · Sassuolo1:1
  • 20.09Lecce3:0
  • 16.09Benfica0:2
  • 12.09away · Lazio2:2
  • 06.09away · Juventus1:1

Inter

  • 13.10Club Brugge3:4
  • 10.10Parma3:0
  • 19.09away · Roma2:2
  • 14.09Udinese5:3
  • 08.09away · Real Madrid1:2

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Milan — Inter1:0
  • 23.11.2025Inter — Milan0:1
  • 23.04.2025Inter — Milan0:3
  • 02.04.2025Milan — Inter1:1
  • 02.02.2025Milan — Inter1:1

Full record: 27 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions LeagueInter651018–8+1016
2, Champions LeagueLazio651011–4+716
4, Champions LeagueCagliari64116–3+313
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueMilan633011–5+612
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueJuventus63219–5+411

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie A on the same day

  • BolognaMonzapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
  • UdineseRomapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →