Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Mirassol — São Paulo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Mirassol are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mirassol — São Paulo What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Mirassol not to lose | 74% | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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- Handicap Mirassol
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- São Paulo goals
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Form
- 12.10away · Bahia0:1
- 08.10away · RB Bragantino1:1
- 19.09Botafogo2:0
- 13.09Vitória2:2
- 06.09away · Coritiba2:1
- 11.10Vitória2:1
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
Head to head
- 26.04.2026São Paulo — Mirassol1:0
- 20.10.2025Mirassol — São Paulo3:0
- 25.05.2025São Paulo — Mirassol0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- CruzeiroRemopreliminary6721121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- InternacionalBotafogopreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- VitóriaAthletico Paranaensepreliminary342937XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →