Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Moreirense — Estrela da Amadora
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Estrela da Amadora are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Moreirense — No. 12, 8 pts; Estrela da Amadora — No. 10, 10 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 1 win, Estrela da Amadora 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Moreirense — Estrela da Amadora What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Moreirense not to lose | 59% | |
| Estrela da Amadora not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Moreirense
- Moreirense goals
- Estrela da Amadora goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Gil Vicente0:1
- 20.09away · Vitória de Guimarães1:1
- 14.09Marítimo3:1
- 09.09Benfica0:4
- 04.09away · FC Porto1:2
- 11.10away · Arouca0:1
- 20.09Académico Viseu0:2
- 14.09away · Rio Ave3:3
- 10.09Braga2:1
- 05.09Famalicão2:2
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Moreirense — Estrela da Amadora3:2
- 20.12.2025Estrela da Amadora — Moreirense0:0
- 02.03.2025Moreirense — Estrela da Amadora1:1
- 28.09.2024Estrela da Amadora — Moreirense2:1
- 07.04.2024Moreirense — Estrela da Amadora2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- FC PortoEstorilpreliminary841241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →