Scottish Premiership, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Fir Park
Motherwell — Celtic
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0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Celtic to win (57%), came true.
Celtic are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Celtic are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Motherwell — Celtic What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Motherwell not to lose | 43% | |
| Celtic not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Dundee FC1:2
- 15.09Aberdeen0:4
- 05.09away · Rangers0:1
- 02.09Dundee United3:0
- 30.08away · St. Mirren3:3
- 20.09Rangers0:1
- 17.09Ferencváros1:3
- 09.09away · St. Johnstone1:0
- 05.09away · St. Mirren2:1
- 02.09Aberdeen3:0
Head to head
- 13.05.2026Motherwell — Celtic2:3
- 14.03.2026Celtic — Motherwell3:1
- 30.12.2025Motherwell — Celtic2:0
- 05.10.2025Celtic — Motherwell3:2
- 02.02.2025Motherwell — Celtic1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Celtic | 8 | 7 | +12 | 21 |
| 2, Championship round | Rangers | 8 | 6 | +6 | 19 |
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 10, Relegation round | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
Next matches
- BenficaCeltic15 October · Europa League6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- KilmarnockMotherwell17 October · Scottish Premiership3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 4629261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →