UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz)
Benfica — Celtic
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Benfica — Celtic What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Benfica not to lose | 87% | |
| Celtic not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Benfica
- Benfica goals
- Celtic goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 09.09away · Moreirense4:0
- 11.10away · Motherwell2:0
- 20.09Rangers0:1
- 17.09Ferencváros1:3
- 09.09away · St. Johnstone1:0
- 05.09away · St. Mirren2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Milan | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- 3226412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →