Scottish Premiership, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Motherwell — Heart of Midlothian
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Heart of Midlothian are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Heart of Midlothian are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Motherwell — No. 9, 8 pts; Heart of Midlothian — No. 3, 16 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Motherwell: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Motherwell 0 wins, Heart of Midlothian 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Motherwell — Heart of Midlothian What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Motherwell not to lose | 53% | |
| Heart of Midlothian not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Motherwell
- Motherwell goals
- Heart of Midlothian goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Celtic0:2
- 19.09away · Dundee FC1:2
- 15.09Aberdeen0:4
- 05.09away · Rangers0:1
- 02.09Dundee United3:0
- 10.10St. Mirren5:0
- 19.09away · Kilmarnock1:1
- 15.09away · Falkirk1:2
- 06.09Dundee FC2:1
- 03.09away · Hibernian3:1
Head to head
- 09.05.2026Motherwell — Heart of Midlothian1:1
- 11.04.2026Heart of Midlothian — Motherwell3:1
- 29.11.2025Motherwell — Heart of Midlothian0:0
- 23.08.2025Heart of Midlothian — Motherwell3:3
- 10.05.2025Heart of Midlothian — Motherwell3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Championship round | Rangers | 8 | 6 | +6 | 19 |
| 3, Championship round | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Dundee FC | 8 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 10, Relegation round | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- HibernianCelticpreliminary2025542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →