Polish Ekstraklasa, round 12 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Motor Lublin — Zagłębie Lubin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Motor Lublin are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Motor Lublin are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Motor Lublin — No. 14, 9 pts; Zagłębie Lubin — No. 9, 15 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Motor Lublin 3 wins, Zagłębie Lubin 0, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Motor Lublin 11, Zagłębie Lubin 13.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Motor Lublin — Zagłębie Lubin What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Motor Lublin not to lose | 77% | |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 12.10away · Radomiak Radom3:2
- 19.09Górnik Zabrze0:0
- 11.09away · Raków Częstochowa1:2
- 05.09Legia Warszawa2:3
- 29.08Piast Gliwice0:2
- 10.10away · Cracovia1:3
- 20.09Wisła Płock0:2
- 15.09away · Raków Częstochowa3:2
- 12.09GKS Katowice2:1
- 07.09away · Wieczysta Kraków1:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Motor Lublin — Zagłębie Lubin1:0
- 21.09.2025Zagłębie Lubin — Motor Lublin2:2
- 18.05.2025Motor Lublin — Zagłębie Lubin1:0
- 22.11.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Motor Lublin1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Widzew ŁódźGórnik Zabrzepreliminary343135XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →