J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Nagoya Grampus — Yokohama F.Marinos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Nagoya Grampus 38%, Yokohama F.Marinos 34%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nagoya Grampus are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Nagoya Grampus — No. 15, 9 pts; Yokohama F.Marinos — No. 7, 15 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Yokohama F.Marinos: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Nagoya Grampus 3 wins, Yokohama F.Marinos 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus — Yokohama F.Marinos What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Nagoya Grampus not to lose | 66% | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 19.09away · FC Tokyo0:1
- 12.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- 06.09Machida Zelvia1:3
- 02.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 10.10away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 19.09Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 12.09away · Machida Zelvia1:1
- 06.09away · Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 02.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
Head to head
- 20.07.2025Yokohama F.Marinos — Nagoya Grampus3:0
- 02.04.2025Nagoya Grampus — Yokohama F.Marinos2:0
- 08.12.2024Yokohama F.Marinos — Nagoya Grampus0:2
- 30.03.2024Nagoya Grampus — Yokohama F.Marinos2:1
- 08.07.2023Nagoya Grampus — Yokohama F.Marinos2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
J1 League on the same day
- Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chibapreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Urawa Red DiamondsV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary5225221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- FC TokyoMito Hollyhockpreliminary6920101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →