Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Friday, 9 October, MSK
Nasaf Qarshi — Dinamo Samarkand
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nasaf Qarshi to win (53%), came true.
Nasaf Qarshi are clear favourites: 53% against 22% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nasaf Qarshi are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nasaf Qarshi — Dinamo Samarkand What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Nasaf Qarshi not to lose | 78% | |
| Dinamo Samarkand not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nasaf Qarshi
- Nasaf Qarshi goals
- Dinamo Samarkand goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · Andijon4:1
- 09.09Bunyodkor Tashkent3:0
- 04.09Neftchi Fargona6:2
- 26.08away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:1
- 21.08away · Navbahor Namangan0:1
- 17.09away · Navbahor Namangan2:3
- 10.09Qizilqum Zarafshon1:0
- 05.09away · Kokand 19121:1
- 25.08Pakhtakor Tashkent1:1
- 19.08away · AGMK1:0
Head to head
- 12.03.2026Dinamo Samarkand — Nasaf Qarshi1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 7 | AGMK | 23 | 10 | +2 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarkand | 23 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijon | 23 | 9 | -2 | 30 |
Next matches
- Lokomotiv TashkentNasaf Qarshi17 October · Uzbekistan Super League3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Dinamo SamarkandBuxoro17 October · Uzbekistan Super League3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 6125141The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4727261The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 6919121The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →