Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Sunday, 11 October, 23:30 MSK · Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Náutico — Vila Nova

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed

Náutico41%

Draw29%

Vila Nova30%

Model estimate at 23:01 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Náutico to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.

Náutico are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Náutico: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Náutico — Vila Nova What is xG?		1.3–1.1
Náutico not to lose		70%
Vila Nova not to lose		59%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		48%
Both teams to score: no		52%
Total over 2.5		40%
Total under 2.5		60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Náutico
Náutico goals
Vila Nova goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Náutico

09.10Novorizontino0:2
03.10away · Fortaleza1:1
26.09Sport Recife3:1
22.09away · Cuiabá0:3
16.09Operário-PR3:3

Vila Nova

08.10Cuiabá0:0
04.10away · Botafogo SP1:0
26.09Londrina2:0
19.09América-MG1:0
15.09away · Avaí1:1

Head to head

21.06.2026Vila Nova — Náutico4:3
10.03.2023Náutico — Vila Nova2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46–31	+15	61
2, Promotion	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59–28	+31	60
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40–39	+1	43
14	Náutico	33	11	9	13	39–42	-3	42
15	Ceará	33	11	9	13	35–40	-5	42

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

00:00
Vila NovaNovorizontino19 October · Brasileirao Serie B
313038
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.1
01:30
GoiásNáutico20 October · Brasileirao Serie B
502724
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

22:00
JuventudeSão Bernardo
572617
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
22:10
Atlético-GOSport Recife
482725
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →