Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Juventude — São Bernardo
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Juventude to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Juventude are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Juventude are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Juventude — São Bernardo What is xG? | 1.4–0.7 | |
| Juventude not to lose | 83% | |
| São Bernardo not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Juventude
- Juventude goals
- São Bernardo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 07.10away · Ponte Preta2:0
- 03.10Operário-PR3:0
- 29.09away · América-MG1:0
- 19.09away · Sport Recife1:2
- 14.09Athletic Club MG0:2
- 07.10away · Sport Recife1:2
- 03.10CRB3:1
- 26.09away · Novorizontino0:0
- 19.09Atlético-GO1:0
- 15.09away · América-MG2:0
Head to head
- 21.06.2026São Bernardo — Juventude0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
Next matches
- CearáJuventude17 October · Brasileirao Serie B343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
- São BernardoCriciúma18 October · Brasileirao Serie B363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.9
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 4129301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →