Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK
Neftchi Fargona — Xorazm
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Neftchi Fargona to win (78%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 78% fails in about 22 matches out of 100 on average.
Neftchi Fargona are clear favourites: 78% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 39%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Neftchi Fargona are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Xorazm: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Neftchi Fargona — Xorazm What is xG? | 2.4–0.6 | |
| Neftchi Fargona not to lose | 92% | |
| Xorazm not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 39% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 61% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Neftchi Fargona
- Neftchi Fargona goals
- Xorazm goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:0
- 09.09Surkhon-20112:1
- 04.09away · Nasaf Qarshi2:6
- 23.08Sogdiana3:0
- 18.08away · Buxoro1:4
- 21.09Qizilqum Zarafshon1:3
- 10.09Sogdiana0:0
- 03.09away · AGMK0:1
- 25.08away · Andijon0:1
- 20.08Lokomotiv Tashkent1:3
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Xorazm — Neftchi Fargona0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | -8 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 23 | 7 | -16 | 22 |
Next matches
- Kokand 1912Neftchi Fargona16 October · Uzbekistan Super League1824582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- Surkhon-2011Xorazm16 October · Uzbekistan Super League4432241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →