Major League Soccer (MLS), round 30 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
New York City FC — Los Angeles FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Evenly matched: New York City FC 36%, Los Angeles FC 34%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York City FC — Los Angeles FC What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| New York City FC not to lose | 66% | |
| Los Angeles FC not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap New York City FC
- New York City FC goals
- Los Angeles FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:2
- 27.09away · Atlanta United2:2
- 19.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 13.09away · Real Salt Lake2:0
- 10.09New England Revolution1:2
- 11.10Vancouver Whitecaps1:1
- 27.09away · FC Dallas0:1
- 20.09away · San Jose Earthquakes2:2
- 13.09away · Sporting Kansas City1:3
- 10.09Red Bull New York2:0
Head to head
- 02.03.2025Los Angeles FC — New York City FC1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Houston Dynamo FC | 28 | 13 | +2 | 45 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
MLS on the same day
- 2625482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- 3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.6
- 1524612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- 3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →