A-League Men (Australia), round 3 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Newcastle Jets are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Newcastle Jets are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Newcastle Jets 2 wins, Wellington Phoenix 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix What is xG? | 2.1–1.4 | |
| Newcastle Jets not to lose | 77% | |
| Wellington Phoenix not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Newcastle Jets
- Newcastle Jets goals
- Wellington Phoenix goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 16.05Sydney FC1:1
- 09.05away · Sydney FC1:1
- 25.04Central Coast Mariners4:0
- 17.04away · Melbourne Victory2:2
- 11.04Adelaide United1:1
- 24.04away · Macarthur FC0:4
- 18.04Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:1
- 12.04away · Melbourne City FC0:2
- 05.04away · Melbourne Victory1:0
- 21.03away · Brisbane Roar FC2:1
Head to head
- 23.01.2026Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix4:1
- 14.12.2025Wellington Phoenix — Newcastle Jets1:3
- 06.04.2025Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix1:2
- 28.12.2024Wellington Phoenix — Newcastle Jets2:1
- 19.04.2024Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix1:1
A-League on the same day
- Melbourne City FCSydney FCpreliminary4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Macarthur FCWestern Sydney Wanderers FCpreliminary3628351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →