English Premier League, round 9 · Monday, 2 November, MSK
Newcastle United — Everton
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 2 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Newcastle United are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Newcastle United are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newcastle United — Everton What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 77% | |
| Everton not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Newcastle United
- Newcastle United goals
- Everton goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
- 19.09Hull City2:1
- 14.09away · Leeds United1:4
- 08.09away · Millwall1:0
- 05.09AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 11.10away · Hull City2:2
- 19.09Ipswich Town1:0
- 16.09Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 12.09away · Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 06.09Manchester United2:2
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United — Everton2:3
- 29.11.2025Everton — Newcastle United1:4
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United — Everton0:1
- 05.10.2024Everton — Newcastle United0:0
- 02.04.2024Newcastle United — Everton1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | Brentford | 6 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →