Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 2.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk What is xG? | 0.5–2.7 | |
| Obolon Kyiv not to lose | 15% | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 96% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Obolon Kyiv
- Obolon Kyiv goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09away · Chornomorets Odesa1:1
- 12.09away · LNZ Cherkasy1:3
- 05.09away · FC Kharkiv0:5
- 28.08away · FC Kolos Kovalivka0:0
- 15.08away · Kudrivka0:0
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
Head to head
- 13.05.2026Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv3:1
- 22.11.2025Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:6
- 29.03.2025Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
- 23.09.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv4:0
- 30.03.2024Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | +14 | 21 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Chornomorets Odesa | 7 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 15, Relegation | Obolon Kyiv | 7 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | -14 | 2 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- ZoryaEpitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyipreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- KarpatyKudrivkapreliminary751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FC Kolos KovalivkaPolissya Zhytomyrpreliminary2130492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.1
- KryvbasDynamo Kyivpreliminary2126542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
- Liviy BerehBukovyna Chernivtsipreliminary323533XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.5
- LNZ CherkasyFC Kharkivpreliminary323334XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.7
- Veres RivneChornomorets Odesapreliminary4831211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →