Uzbekistan Super League, round 25 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Pakhtakor Tashkent — Neftchi Fargona
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Pakhtakor Tashkent 37%, Neftchi Fargona 35%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pakhtakor Tashkent — Neftchi Fargona What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent not to lose | 65% | |
| Neftchi Fargona not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent goals
- Neftchi Fargona goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Bunyodkor Tashkent3:1
- 19.09away · Mashal Muborak2:1
- 09.09away · AGMK3:1
- 04.09Andijon3:0
- 25.08away · Dinamo Samarkand1:1
- 07.10Xorazm2:2
- 20.09away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:0
- 09.09Surkhon-20112:1
- 04.09away · Nasaf Qarshi2:6
- 23.08Sogdiana3:0
Head to head
- 09.04.2026Neftchi Fargona — Pakhtakor Tashkent0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- BuxoroSurkhon-2011preliminary5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →