Uzbekistan Super League, round 25 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Buxoro — Surkhon-2011
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Buxoro are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Buxoro are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buxoro — Surkhon-2011 What is xG? | 1.3–0.8 | |
| Buxoro not to lose | 78% | |
| Surkhon-2011 not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Buxoro
- Buxoro goals
- Surkhon-2011 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Andijon3:2
- 19.09away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:2
- 11.09Navbahor Namangan1:4
- 05.09away · Qizilqum Zarafshon2:3
- 24.08away · Kokand 19121:1
- 10.10away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:0
- 20.09Kokand 19121:0
- 09.09away · Neftchi Fargona1:2
- 04.09away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:0
- 25.08AGMK0:0
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Surkhon-2011 — Buxoro3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 7 | AGMK | 23 | 10 | +2 | 36 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | -8 | 23 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Pakhtakor TashkentNeftchi Fargonapreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →