Ligue 1, round 9 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Paris FC — Monaco
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Monaco are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paris FC — Monaco What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Paris FC not to lose | 58% | |
| Monaco not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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Form
- 10.10Toulouse2:2
- 18.09Lens2:1
- 12.09away · Strasbourg1:1
- 04.09away · Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 30.08Marseille2:0
Head to head
- 10.04.2026Paris FC — Monaco4:1
- 01.11.2025Monaco — Paris FC0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Monaco | 6 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 2, Champions League | Lille | 6 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 4, Champions League qualifying | Lyon | 6 | 3 | +7 | 11 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
Ligue 1 on the same day
- StrasbourgAuxerrepreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- MarseilleToulousepreliminary5424221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →