Ligue 1, round 9 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Marseille — Toulouse
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Marseille are clear favourites: 54% against 22% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Marseille are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Marseille — Toulouse What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Marseille not to lose | 78% | |
| Toulouse not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Marseille
- Marseille goals
- Toulouse goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Troyes2:0
- 20.09Paris Saint-Germain1:2
- 17.09away · Beşiktaş1:4
- 11.09away · Rennes0:1
- 06.09Paris FC2:3
- 10.10away · Monaco2:2
- 19.09Le Havre3:2
- 12.09away · Lorient2:2
- 03.09Lille0:1
- 29.08away · Brest2:2
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Toulouse — Marseille0:1
- 04.03.2026Marseille — Toulouse2:2
- 29.11.2025Marseille — Toulouse2:2
- 06.04.2025Marseille — Toulouse3:2
- 31.08.2024Toulouse — Marseille1:3
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- StrasbourgAuxerrepreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Paris FCMonacopreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →