Ukrainian Premier League, round 10 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Polissya Zhytomyr — Obolon Kyiv
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Polissya Zhytomyr are clear favourites: 84% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 35%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Polissya Zhytomyr are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Polissya Zhytomyr — Obolon Kyiv What is xG? | 2.4–0.5 | |
| Polissya Zhytomyr not to lose | 96% | |
| Obolon Kyiv not to lose | 16% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 35% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 65% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Polissya Zhytomyr
- Polissya Zhytomyr goals
- Obolon Kyiv goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Bukovyna Chernivtsi2:2
- 18.09Kryvbas1:0
- 13.09Liviy Bereh1:0
- 04.09Kudrivka5:1
- 29.08away · Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
- 18.09away · Chornomorets Odesa1:1
- 12.09away · LNZ Cherkasy1:3
- 05.09away · FC Kharkiv0:5
- 28.08away · FC Kolos Kovalivka0:0
- 15.08away · Kudrivka0:0
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Polissya Zhytomyr — Obolon Kyiv3:1
- 25.10.2025Obolon Kyiv — Polissya Zhytomyr0:4
- 28.02.2025Obolon Kyiv — Polissya Zhytomyr0:0
- 25.08.2024Polissya Zhytomyr — Obolon Kyiv4:0
- 16.03.2024Obolon Kyiv — Polissya Zhytomyr1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | +14 | 21 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Chornomorets Odesa | 7 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 15, Relegation | Obolon Kyiv | 7 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | -14 | 2 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- Dynamo KyivKudrivkapreliminary841151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.7
- Veres RivneFC Kolos Kovalivkapreliminary293337XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →