Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Puebla — León
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:1Came true
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), came true.
Evenly matched: Puebla 35%, León 35%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings León are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Puebla — León What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Puebla not to lose | 65% | |
| León not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 27.09away · Tigres0:1
- 19.09Atlante1:1
- 16.09Toluca0:1
- 12.09away · Necaxa1:0
- 30.08away · CF América0:2
- 28.09FC Juárez2:1
- 21.09away · Querétaro FC1:1
- 15.09Atlético de San Luis2:0
- 11.09away · Pumas1:3
- 29.08away · Atlante1:1
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Puebla — León0:1
- 09.11.2025León — Puebla1:2
- 13.04.2025León — Puebla1:0
- 17.07.2024Puebla — León2:2
- 17.03.2024León — Puebla2:1
Table
Next matches
- TijuanaPuebla17 October · Liga MX5825181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- LeónCF América18 October · Liga MX2529472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
Liga MX on the same day
- 3128402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →