Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Universitario
Tigres — Toluca
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3:2Missed
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Toluca to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Toluca are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tigres — Toluca What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Tigres not to lose | 60% | |
| Toluca not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Form
- 27.09Puebla1:0
- 19.09away · FC Juárez0:2
- 13.09away · Monterrey0:0
- 06.09Necaxa1:1
- 30.08away · Santos Laguna0:0
- 27.09away · Cruz Azul3:3
- 21.09Santos Laguna2:3
- 16.09away · Puebla1:0
- 13.09Atlas5:2
- 31.08FC Juárez4:0
Head to head
- 31.05.2026Toluca — Tigres1:1
- 18.01.2026Tigres — Toluca0:0
- 15.12.2025Toluca — Tigres2:1
- 12.12.2025Tigres — Toluca1:0
- 27.07.2025Toluca — Tigres3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 12 | Pumas | 11 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres | 11 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
Next matches
- ChivasTigres18 October · Liga MX5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- TolucaAtlético de San Luis18 October · Liga MX7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
Liga MX on the same day
- 353035XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →