Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença
Remo — Grêmio
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Remo to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Remo are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Remo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Remo — Grêmio What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Remo not to lose | 75% | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Remo
- Remo goals
- Grêmio goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
- 08.09away · Vitória0:1
- 04.09Internacional3:1
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Grêmio — Remo0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Next matches
- Vasco da GamaRemo11 October · Brasileirao6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- GrêmioInternacional11 October · Brasileirao373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5226221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →