Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos
Botafogo — Vasco da Gama
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Botafogo to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Botafogo are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Botafogo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Botafogo — Vasco da Gama What is xG? | 1.8–1.2 | |
| Botafogo not to lose | 77% | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Botafogo
- Botafogo goals
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Mirassol0:2
- 17.09Grêmio3:2
- 13.09RB Bragantino1:1
- 07.09Palmeiras0:0
- 30.08away · Flamengo0:3
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
- 12.09away · Grêmio2:1
- 09.09away · Santa Fe0:0
- 06.09away · Fluminense0:1
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Vasco da Gama — Botafogo1:2
- 06.11.2025Botafogo — Vasco da Gama3:0
- 12.09.2025Botafogo — Vasco da Gama1:1
- 28.08.2025Vasco da Gama — Botafogo1:1
- 13.07.2025Vasco da Gama — Botafogo0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
Next matches
- Vasco da GamaRemo11 October · Brasileirao6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- CoritibaBotafogo12 October · Brasileirao3029412The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5226221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →