Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Rio Ave — Nacional
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3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Rio Ave to win (40%), came true.
Rio Ave are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 31%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rio Ave are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rio Ave — Nacional What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| Rio Ave not to lose | 70% | |
| Nacional not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Alverca0:1
- 14.09Estrela da Amadora3:3
- 06.09away · Santa Clara0:4
- 28.08Sporting CP0:4
- 22.08away · Estoril2:0
- 19.09Famalicão0:4
- 12.09Alverca1:3
- 05.09away · Sporting CP0:2
- 30.08Estrela da Amadora2:3
- 23.08away · Vitória de Guimarães0:1
Head to head
- 25.01.2026Nacional — Rio Ave4:0
- 17.08.2025Rio Ave — Nacional1:1
- 10.05.2025Nacional — Rio Ave3:3
- 29.12.2024Rio Ave — Nacional2:1
- 19.05.2021Nacional — Rio Ave1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
Next matches
- SanjoanenseNacional17 October · Taca de Portugal1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- LouletanoRio Ave17 October · Taca de Portugal1823602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 781571The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.1
- 4529261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →