Russian Cup, round 4 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Arena Khimki
Rodina — Spartak Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Spartak Moscow are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Rodina: winless in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Rodina 0 wins, Spartak Moscow 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rodina — Spartak Moscow What is xG? | 0.8–2.5 | |
| Rodina not to lose | 26% | |
| Spartak Moscow not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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- Handicap Rodina
- Rodina goals
- Spartak Moscow goals
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Form
- 11.10away · CSKA Moscow0:3
- 16.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:2
- 06.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala0:2
- 02.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3
- 10.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 16.09Fakel1:0
- 13.09FC Rostov3:0
- 06.09away · Dinamo Moscow1:2
- 02.09Rodina3:1
Head to head
- 02.09.2026Spartak Moscow — Rodina3:1
- 25.07.2026Spartak Moscow — Rodina3:0
Russian Cup on the same day
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →