Russian Cup, round 4 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Ak Bars Arena
Rubin Kazan — FC Orenburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Rubin Kazan are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rubin Kazan are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rubin Kazan — FC Orenburg What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Rubin Kazan not to lose | 70% | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rubin Kazan
- Rubin Kazan goals
- FC Orenburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 16.09away · Rodina1:1
- 12.09away · CSKA Moscow1:1
- 07.09FK Akhmat1:1
- 02.09away · FC Orenburg1:1
- 10.10Dynamo Makhachkala4:0
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
Head to head
- 02.09.2026FC Orenburg — Rubin Kazan1:1
- 09.08.2026Rubin Kazan — FC Orenburg1:1
- 11.04.2026Rubin Kazan — FC Orenburg0:0
- 16.09.2025FC Orenburg — Rubin Kazan0:0
- 30.08.2025FC Orenburg — Rubin Kazan2:2
Russian Cup on the same day
- 917742The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →